Community gun violence in U.S. cities is both rare and highly concentrated. Decades of research and practice show that shootings cluster within a very small number of people, places, and social networks. In many cities, less than 5% of street segments account for most shootings, and more than half of homicides involve social networks representing under 1% of the population. Effective violence reduction therefore requires identifying and engaging the individuals at very high risk of being involved in gun violence in the immediate future.
This brief is designed to support jurisdictions working to implement community violence intervention approaches by improving their ability to identify VHRI for intervention. Its central premise is that effective CVI work requires both an understanding of what research has established about risk nationally and a systematic approach for determining who is at highest risk in a particular community.
This brief provides:
1. A concise synthesis of the research evidence on risk for involvement in community gun violence, and
2. Guidance on how to implement structured processes to identify the people driving violence within their communities. Its central premise is that effective CVI work requires both an understanding of what research has established about risk nationally and a systematic approach for determining who is at highest risk in a particular community.
Identifying High-Risk Populations Brief
Mikaela Rabinowitz, Vaughn Crandall, and Shantay Jackson (February 2026)
